WASHINGTON —
Chinese shipyards will produce more than half of the world's commercial ships in 2023. Some analysts say that the continued expansion of China's shipyards will help it prepare for a protracted war accelerate production and replace losses during wartime. Martin, a defense expert at the Rand Corporation, told VOA that China's expansion of shipbuilding does bring advantages to protracted warfare, but it will not have a decisive impact, and from the perspective of warship performance, quality is more important than quantity.
Data recently released by China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology shows that China's shipbuilding industry will undertake two-thirds of the world's new orders in 2023, and more than half of the world's commercial ships will come from China.
A recent report in the Wall Street Journal pointed out that Chinese shipyards have expanded in scale after receiving sufficient orders from the world. In the event of a protracted war, Chinese shipyards will be able to reach wartime production speeds, accelerate production, and replace lost ships, while the United States will be able to Difficult to do.
The U.S. shipbuilding industry has continued to shrink significantly over the past few decades due to factors including global industrial shifts and domestic policy changes.
Bradley Martin, director of the RAND Corporation's National Security Supply Chain Institute, told VOA that the expansion of China's shipyards will indeed bring advantages in a protracted war, but it will not have a decisive impact on the war.
Martin said: "China's ability to produce shipping ships will probably make it more optimistic about its ability to sustain itself in a protracted war. If it is a long war, and a lot of things will need to be replaced over a long period, then being able to replace the ship Transportation is an advantage."
Martin said that he does not believe that the United States can replace losses at a reasonable speed, but in terms of warship losses, it takes several years to build a warship, and the same is true for China, but the United States Construction time required may be longer.
"If there was some kind of conflict, I'm not sure any country would be able to build enough ships to make up for the losses, even a very capable shipbuilding country like China," he said. "I think the
United States can use other countries already This is not necessarily a bad assumption given the capacity of the established shipping. The reason for building ships elsewhere is largely a matter of expense and capital concentration. I don't think this would become a serious problem in the event of war, But there could be an underlying weakness," he said.
The gap between the U.S. and China shipbuilding industries is an inevitable result of globalization.
During World War II, the United States had more than 50 shipyards that could build or repair ships over 500 feet in length. Today, there are less than 20 shipyards left, of which only four are military shipyards. The naval fleet must rely on private commercial shipyards for a large amount of maintenance. Of China's 75 large shipyards, 20 can support the navy in building warships.
The U.S. Government Accountability Office previously warned that private contractors and U.S. Navy shipyards have struggled to complete necessary maintenance tasks on time. Martin said U.S. shipyards face a shortage of skilled workers and high costs.
"The main reason has to do with the availability of labor, the type of labor needed to work on ships. That's a problem for existing shipyards," he said. "Another factor is that the commercial shipbuilding industry is leaving the U.S., along with the departure of many manufacturing industries. For the same reason, it's difficult to regulate. The places to build ships are relatively limited."
Martin said that due to rising labor costs, the decline of U.S. shipbuilding, like the steel and mining industries, is inevitable and will not be easily reversed.
Independent commentator Wang Jian said that U.S. manufacturing workers have been transformed, and China's low-cost labor force and the development of the steel industry are the reasons for the expansion of the shipbuilding industry.
Wang Jian said: "The shipbuilding industry is characterized by labor intensity. This industry has advantages for China because China has the largest steel industry in the world and the largest number of industrial workers. Others include land and the completeness of the entire surrounding industrial chain. ."
Wang Jian said: "The United States does not need to retain its shipbuilding industry because the United States does not have so many workers and does not have so much demand. Shipbuilding is related to shipping. The reason why China's shipping is getting bigger is that it continues to export, and export Transportation is needed, and the largest transportation is the fleet, and shipping by sea is the cheapest and fastest. The United States imports, so the shipbuilding industry is slowly being eliminated. This is the process of industrial development.
Sharing resources between merchant ships and warships is inevitable
Satellite images show direct resource sharing between military and civilian operations at China's major shipyards. Large shipyards build both commercial ships and warships for the Chinese Navy.
Martin said that it is inevitable that foreign companies sign contracts with Chinese shipyards and indirectly support the Chinese military's ship construction.
He said: "I think doing business with Chinese commercial shipbuilding companies will undoubtedly result in the transfer of technology and resources to companies that can manufacture military products and have a relationship with military shipbuilding. Having said that, I don't know if there are too many other options. If a company in Taiwan wants to do business with people who build ships in China, it will end up supporting the Chinese military, which may be indirect, but still substantial."
Wang Jian said that most of China's shipyards are building at the same time Commercial ships and warships are indistinguishable. Only such large companies can offer price advantages, and ultimately this becomes a political choice for foreign companies.
"Only this kind of large-scale enterprise has an advantage in doing these military operations. It can provide relatively low prices because it has resource sharing. In the final analysis, it is still a political choice. Would you rather use cheaper or slightly cheaper ones? If it is more expensive, the political risk will be smaller. If it is cheaper, there will be certain political risks."
Wang Jian said that the development of a country's shipbuilding industry will inevitably contribute to warship manufacturing. During World War II, the U.S. shipbuilding industry was developed, continued production during the war, and finally won the victory. However, warship manufacturing has certain particularities. Shipbuilding is the foundation, and only weapons and equipment determine whether warships are developed or not. China does have the advantage of shipbuilding as a platform, but this does not mean that its military-industrial enterprises are capable of manufacturing advanced equipment.
Is the United States ready for a long war?
Wang Jian said that the ammunition and weapons factories in the United States are obviously not ready for a possible war. In the past decade or so, Western countries have become accustomed to reducing military expenditures, military maintenance, and weapons and ammunition reserves. Military-industrial enterprises have maintained low operations, and the entire country has paid relatively low costs for the military to maintain economic prosperity. The Russia-Ukraine war made everyone realize that the weapons and equipment of many Western countries are insufficient.
Wang Jian said: "The current problem is that military-industrial enterprises are unwilling to expand production. The reason is that after the money is invested, the weapons and equipment will no longer be needed after the war is over, and the investment cannot be recovered. So now in the process of supporting Ukraine, Western countries have discovered that the entire West has not yet mobilized."
Wang Jian said that mobilization means convincing voters to pay more taxes, which is not that easy. At present, the People's Liberation Army has not posed a direct threat to the United States and is "just showing off its power in the Taiwan Strait." It is even more difficult to achieve consensus. But once Western countries reach a consensus and truly mobilize, the West's industrial capabilities to immediately produce large quantities of weapons and equipment are beyond the imagination of authoritarian regimes.
Martin said that in the past few years, the United States has focused on good relationships with allies and partner countries, but it can indeed do more to prepare for the needs of war, although it will be difficult in the short term.
Martin said: "I have to be very blunt in saying that I don't think the industrial base of the United States is adequate for a long war. That doesn't mean it can't be prepared. I think there really needs to be attention to better incentivizing factories and so on to stay here and prepare for a war Be prepared for the types of needs that may arise," he said.
Wang Jian said that although commercial shipbuilding in the United States has been almost eliminated, warship manufacturing is not affected at all and military shipyards are still maintained because the United States knows that it will need a large number of warships in the future, but it has not yet fully started construction.
Wang Jian said: "From a Western perspective, the West has mature industries and operating mechanisms. It is not more a question of capabilities, but a question of choice. China's problem is that China is not a question of choice, China is a question of capabilities. They are It can't be done. For the West, it's just a political choice. Leaders can convince people to make guns. As long as they get the budget, it will happen soon."
Quality is more important than quantity. There is still a long way to go between the United States and China.
The Chinese Navy continues to expand. In terms of ship size, China currently has 370 warships and is expected to expand to 435 in 2030. The U.S. Navy has 292 warships, and the size is expected to remain unchanged in the next few years.
Martin said that the quality of warships is more important than the number of warships. More battleships do not mean more power.
He said: "Despite the decline in the commercial shipbuilding industry in the United States, the U.S. Navy is still a very capable force. I think one thing I would also caution is that these numbers are certainly important and these numbers are not consistent It is related to the ability of ships to appear in many different places. However, the number of ships itself is not necessarily worrying."
Wang Jian said that the U.S. Navy has entered an iterative period, old warships are retired, and new warships have not yet been put in place, so the ship displacement is less than that of China It's understandable. China invests a lot of military spending every year, and its military strength and shipbuilding industry are constantly increasing to build more warships. However, as an emerging power, its naval strength is still very far behind that of the United States.
Wang Jian said: "It takes twenty years for the navy to train a captain from sailors. I don't believe that twenty years ago, China's People's Liberation Army had already started to train captains of so many warships. The navy needs time to grow and a very large number of people. Investment, so the PLA builds so many warships, how much combat effectiveness can it generate? This is a question."
Martin believes that the problem the U.S. Navy currently faces is that relative to the number of ships, the U.S.'s demand for the use of ships is too great. From the perspective of the scale of the mission, there are indeed not enough ships. Many ships are overused, which will accelerate wear and tear and prepare for war. There will also be problems because limited ships are used to meet too many requirements.
"I'm not worried about China having more ships," Martin said. "However, given the U.S. Navy's declining ability to meet its global commitments, I think it's something very worthy of concern."
From weapons, combat systems, and electronics, Martin said Judging from equipment, the Chinese Navy is very capable. While the Chinese Navy cannot match the U.S. military in every aspect, it does present a credible challenge,
"I think when we consider factors such as damage control, the ability to withstand combat damage, and overall quality, the U.S. Navy may still have the advantage." But because of the overuse of existing ships, some advantages may be lost. I think China may not be as worried as the United States about having ships with a service life of 30-35 years
