TEL AVIV--- The Middle East is currently in crisis. Israel and Hamas have been at war since October, with sporadic attacks by Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon and Iranian Revolutionary Guard proxies in Syria, and attacks and seizures of Red Sea cargo ships by Iran-backed Houthis. , seriously disrupting maritime commercial flows.
Data from the International Monetary Fund shows that in January 2024, the number of ships entering the high seas through the key Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea dropped by nearly half compared with the same period last year.
Faced with these serious threats, the United States launched diplomatic operations, dispatched aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, and reconnaissance aircraft to the Mediterranean Sea together with the United Kingdom, and took the lead in establishing a Red Sea Maritime Task Force involving 20 countries to protect global shipping interests.
China, despite signaling that it is seeking to exploit Middle East conflicts for geopolitical gain, has not joined the task force and continues to maintain a relatively passive stance during the current crisis.
"The United States has more allies in the region, like the UAE, Qatar, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. The United States is playing a very active role," Dr. Shahid Ali, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Policy Council, told VOA. "Blinken and other U.S. officials have visited countries in the region many times. Biden has also visited. But President Xi Jinping has not done anything like this. He only mediates through Foreign Minister Wang Yi and diplomats."
According to Dr. Ali, since Xi Jinping came to power in 2013, China has been trying every means to present itself as a responsible big country to replace the role of the United States.
"Therefore, China's current response in the Middle East is very cautious and well thought out," Ali said.
He said: "They are in no rush to issue a statement. The Beijing authorities have always insisted on advising all parties to exercise restraint and urging an end to the conflict. However, they have not condemned Hamas."
Galia Lavi, deputy director of the Israel China Policy Center, outlined China's position in the Middle East in harsher terms.
He said: "China has no allies at all, although it seems to be friends with everyone. From an economic perspective, before October 7, 2021 (the day of Hamas's large-scale infiltration and attacks on Israel), The Chinese government is trying to establish influence in the Middle East through economic investments."
China’s main regional investment targets include the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. As China strengthens its economic ties with these countries, its influence grows.
“In the last two or three years, China has started to assume the role of a superpower as it feels that it already has huge influence in the region,” Ravi continued. “It sort of led to the Saudi-Iran resumption deal, but that was basically picking the flowers that other people had planted.”
Last March, Iran and Saudi Arabia finally restored diplomatic ties after decades of hostility and a formal severance of ties seven years ago. China brokered the historic deal, but so far Saudi Arabia and Iran are still fighting a proxy war in Yemen.
Regardless, the rapprochement is seen as a diplomatic victory for China, which, Ravi said, "has become obsessed with the role of a responsible superpower."
“China has used conflicts in the region as an opportunity to denounce U.S. hypocrisy and its disregard for the suffering of Palestinians while denouncing China’s human rights violations,” Ravi continued. “China is adding fuel to the fire by presenting itself as a more peaceful and cultural alternative to the United States by claiming that the United States is bringing war to the region.”
But critics say China's failure to act after Hamas launched a terror attack on Israel on October 7 has damaged its standing in the Middle East.
"China's response to what is happening here is in stark contrast to the United States," Ravi said.
The United States has sent troops, aircraft carriers, humanitarian aid to Gaza, weapons, and envoys to Israel while calling on both Israel and Palestine to achieve a two-state solution.
Ravi said: "On the other hand, China has done nothing. It has not provided important donations to Palestine. When the Houthi armed forces launched attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea, China was indifferent and did not even condemn or provide assistance to the attacked ships. Although most of the goods transported through the sea are Chinese."
Ravi said this had dealt a "huge blow" to China's status and reputation in the Middle East.
"Who will lend a helping hand in times of trouble?" Ravi said. "Arab countries believe that China will not provide any assistance in terms of security. In difficult times, the superpower is still the United States."
Other Middle East analysts have a different view.
In January 2024, Peter Singer, a strategic analyst at the New American Institute, published a comment titled "How China Wins the Middle East", believing that China will make considerable gains in the Middle East in 2023.
Singh cited China's "win after victory" strategically, including expanding China's economic presence in the Middle East, convening leaders' summits, brokering rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and holding joint naval meetings with Saudi Arabia in the early days of the Israel-Hamas war. exercise.
"...history may one day look back on 2023 and recognize that this was the year China truly began to win the Middle East," Singh wrote.
This position may have public support.
Dr. Ali elaborated: “Public opinion in Arab and Muslim countries is that the United States has failed to push or pressure Israel to cease its attacks on Gaza or to push Israel for a permanent ceasefire.”
"China, because of its broader geopolitical and economic plans in the Arab region, does not want to be seen as the same as the United States."
Ali said China's plans include flexing its muscles through infrastructure development and promoting Xi Jinping's Belt and Road Initiative, which includes a massive infrastructure deal with Iran.
"China's geopolitical goals are not just infrastructure and performance, but also using economic power to gain a foothold in countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates," Ali said.
However, Tuvia Gering, a researcher at Israel's China Policy Center, said China is seen as "an opportunistic player rather than the responsible major power it has established itself as deeply embedded in the Middle East."
Jerlin believes that China could have played a moderating role in the current Middle East crisis because it maintains close ties with all parties to the dispute.
"Instead of joining the international community in fighting terrorism, China stands aside and criticizes the United States and other Western countries that support Israel," Jerlin said.
"This shows the opportunistic nature of China. The Beijing government has chosen to take a step back and use the narrative of the Muslim world to support its global strategy, especially towards the United States."
Jerlin believes that in the long run, "amnesia will reappear", trade and investment will continue, and the damage suffered by China-Israel relations may not be irreparable, but the damage is always damage.
Jie Lin concluded that in the face of the current crisis in the Middle East, "China seems to only be rhetorical, but its words and deeds are inconsistent."
